PANEL - Investing in SAF: Institutionals as Venture Capital?

As an investment director at PGGM, how do you assess where sustainable aviation fuel currently fits within your broader climate and real assets strategy, and what ultimately tips SAF opportunities from “interesting” to genuinely investable for a long-term pension investor?

For us, our primary mission is and remains to deliver a good pension for the Dutch Pension Fund for Healthcare and Welfare (PFZW). For this, we developed an investment strategy. We seek to build a well-diversified total portfolio with the optimal balance between financial returns, investment risks, and sustainability.

SAF investment opportunities most naturally fit into our Climate and Energy Transition Solutions Mandate, a €1bn mandate given to us by PFZW. The objective of CETS is to make impact through innovative investments in the energy transition that contribute to measurable avoided CO2 emissions. The CETS mandate will support the energy transition in developed Europe by investing in emerging leaders and scaling proven technologies and services. This mandate was created as a joint effort between our infrastructure and private equity teams, with a risk appetite in between that of our existing mandates in those two asset classes.

In the SAF space, given the availability of proven technologies that can use currently untapped and sustainable feedstock, we focussed our attention on companies that are scaling up the deployment of such existing proven technologies. After looking at various opportunities, we ultimately ended up making a commitment to Elyse Energy, a French developer, as part of a EUR 120m fundraise signed in 2024.

Many SAF projects today still have venture-like technology and policy risk, but require infrastructure-scale capital. From your perspective, what risk-sharing structures, offtake arrangements or public–private mechanisms are most promising to make these projects compatible with institutional return and downside-protection requirements?

It is true that most SAF investments today involve certain early stage risks that infrastructure investors have traditionally shied away from. We do believe risk-sharing structures are the right solution to balance out these early-stage risks and facilitate the mobilisation of the billions of euros and pounds of capital, debt and equity, that SAF projects will require in the coming years. Such risk-sharing structures will need to involve an array of parties in the aviation ecosystem, airlines as long-term committed off-takers of the fuel, engineering firms as construction service providers, licensors as technology providers. Governments and supra-national entities also have a role to play here, with structures such as blended finance for first-of-a-kind plants or as facilitators of revenue certainty for specific pathways such as eSAF; government’s most important role, though, is a to provide policy continuity, which is a crucial role given the scale of regulatory-driven demand in the SAF space.

Ishka Horizon brings together airlines, lessors, lenders, and a growing pool of climate-focused investors. What would you like the industry in the room to understand better about how investors like PGGM evaluate SAF, and what concrete steps could project developers and airlines take to make their pipelines more attractive to investors like you over the next 12–24 months?

As a pension fund investor, we need to balance the sustainability ambitions of our clients with the need to generate a market rate of return within an acceptable level of risk.

When choosing to invest in Elyse Energy, we were convinced by three features of their business. Firstly, the geographies where Elyse Energy are active have certain natural advantages in terms of availability of feedstock and of low-carbon and renewable electricity. Secondly, the Elyse Energy team included an attractive mix of experienced professionals, and their founders include repeat entrepreneurs. Thirdly, the capital stack of Elyse Energy already included two experienced institutional investors by the time we got involved, and has recently also welcomed commercial banks in a debt facility to be used to finance the last stage of development of its advanced development stage projects in France.

As an institutional investor therefore, I would humbly suggest that developers should focus on building projects with the right technologies that build on the strengths of each project’s location, and building strong teams and capital providers around those projects.

PANEL – Going Green: Finding Profitable Leasing Opportunities in Sustainability

At RIVE Private Investment, you focus on real assets with strong ESG credentials. What drew your firm specifically to aviation leasing as a sustainability opportunity, and how does that shape your thesis on where lessors can generate alpha through sustainable strategies?

Aviation's sustainability is often linked to carbon emissions. Our view at RIVE Private Investment is broader. We include all environmental, societal, and financial (positive and negative) impacts.

This wider understanding drew us to specialized aviation leasing. A decade ago, we saw that this overlooked sector performed essential services with clear social and environmental benefits – missions like Emergency Medical Services (EMS), Search and Rescue (SAR), and support for offshore wind. It offered smaller investment tickets and strong fundamentals.

Our thesis is simple: sustainable strategies and financial returns are not mutually exclusive. Many of these missions are government-backed, secured for the long term, and therefore carry limited risk. As lessors, we focus on marketing these assets effectively and maintaining a diversified portfolio of missions – EMS, offshore wind, SAR, and even Oil & Gas. This combination ensures both positive environmental and social impact and financial sustainability.

The panel explores pathways to a net zero lease. From an investor perspective, what innovative structures – such as dynamic pricing, carbon-linked premiums, or portfolio optimisation tools – are you seeing lessors deploy to help operators airlines manage Scope 1 costs while protecting returns?

Our position is complex. As lessors, we cannot impose operational changes due to operators' quiet enjoyment rights. Our role is therefore to create innovative structures that incentivize decarbonization while protecting returns. At the moment, we have identified two main areas to do so:

1. Partnering with Innovation Providers: We collaborate with innovators to identify and deploy decarbonization solutions for our operators. This allows us to offer our operators concrete, actionable solutions to lower their carbon footprint. For fixed-wing aircraft, we partner with Estuaire to analyse the total climate impact of flights, including CO₂, NOx, and contrails. This allows us to suggest flight optimizations that can reduce an aircraft's warming effect. For helicopters, we work with Safran Helicopter Engines to calculate detailed GHG emissions by specific mission type and Assessment of the environmental (emissions) and financial (costs).

2. Providing Financial Incentives for SAF use: We started offering to finance up to 50% of the cost premium for an operator to use up to 6% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in our aircraft. This structure helps share the financial burden of adopting SAF, especially in sectors where it is not yet mandated while decarbonizing our investments. It also helps the SAF industry by creating steady demand and supporting investment in new production facilities.

Ishka Horizon assembles airlines, lessors, financiers and sustainability leads. What gaps in the current leasing market would you most like stakeholders here to address, and what signals from lessors would make aviation assets more attractive for funds like RIVE?

The critical gap is impact data. We need hard, verifiable metrics that quantify aviation's positive contributions alongside its footprint. For specialized aviation, that means measuring patients transported, SAR missions completed, wind farm capacity serviced.

With this data, we can unlock sustainability-linked financing, lowering capital costs and lease rates. This is key to attracting the European financial industry to specialized aviation assets. When lessors can demonstrate impact, capital can flow—and at better terms. Lessors that invest in quantifying their assets' social and environmental value will access cheaper financing and gain competitive advantage. Sustainability is not a cost center; it is a source of competitive advantage.

PANEL – Fleets of the Future: How Are Airlines Approaching New Propulsion?

Your title, Director Future of Travel & Transformative Innovation, suggests a mandate that goes beyond incremental efficiency to rethinking how Air France-KLM gets to zero-emission flight. Could you elaborate on what your role entails day to day, and what its creation signals about the group’s long-term strategy for zero-emission and new propulsion technologies?

The Future of Travel team develops comprehensive strategies for long-term, disruptive innovations that drive aviation towards greater decarbonization. Our approach includes exploring zero-emission technologies such as battery-electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft, advancing new feedstocks and technologies for sustainable aviation fuels (SAF and eSAF), integrating air-rail travel combinations, and investigating the potential of carbon capture.

Each solution addresses different segments of aviation, varying in range and implementation timelines, so pursuing them in parallel is essential. To unlock a sustainable future for aviation, close collaboration with external partners is vital. By forming strategic partnerships and sharing a unified vision, we can accelerate the adoption of these technologies and better understand their real-world feasibility.

Air France-KLM has been exploring a range of future technologies from SAF to hydrogen and electric-hybrid concepts. From your perspective, what concrete criteria now determine whether new propulsion belongs in the real fleet roadmap versus remaining in the innovation “sandbox”?

To determine whether a new propulsion technology is ready to move from the innovation “sandbox” to our actual fleet roadmap, we rely on several concrete criteria:

1. Technology maturity: The technology must reach a certain level of technical readiness, typically demonstrated by successful certification or at least advanced prototyping and validation beyond the laboratory stage. If a concept remains at a low maturity level (uncertified or only tested in controlled environments) it remains in the sandbox for further observation and learning.
2. Feasibility assessment: We conduct critical assessments of the underlying assumptions behind each technology, comparing them to our operational requirements and market outlook. This involves reviewing both internal studies and independent research to separate realistic projections from overly optimistic scenarios.
3. Scalability and integration: The technology must show clear potential for integration into our existing operations, including compatibility with current or foreseeable infrastructure, supply chains, and regulatory frameworks.
4. Business case and investor stability: We evaluate the maturity of the company behind the technology (often startups) and carefully examine their investor base to assess their financial stability and ability to bring the technology to market. A robust business case, including a credible development timeline and funding, is essential for consideration in our roadmap.
5. Sustainability impact:Any potential propulsion technology must demonstrate genuine environmental benefits, aligning with our sustainability goals and regulatory requirements.

By applying these criteria, we ensure that only technologies with proven feasibility, strong development backing, and clear alignment with our strategic objectives advance to our fleet roadmap, while earlier-stage concepts remain in the innovation sandbox for ongoing evaluation and learning.

Ishka Horizon brings together airlines, OEMs, lessors and financiers from across the aviation ecosystem. Looking across this audience, what would you most like lessors, manufacturers and governments to prioritise differently over the next 5–10 years to de-risk new propulsion fleets for airlines like Air France-KLM – whether on CapEx, infrastructure, or policy certainty?

To successfully introduce new propulsion technologies into our fleet, it’s essential that all stakeholders across the aviation ecosystem work collaboratively to reduce risk. Over the next 5–10 years, I would encourage the following priorities:

1. Lessors: Lessors play a crucial role in the adoption of new technology by shaping aircraft financing models and residual value assumptions. I would like to see lessors develop more flexible leasing structures and risk-sharing mechanisms tailored to next-generation aircraft. By adapting lease terms and being open to innovative ownership models, lessors can help mitigate the uncertainties around asset values and technology transition, making it easier for airlines to commit to new propulsion fleets.
2. Manufacturers (OEMs): OEMs should prioritise transparency and partnership throughout the aircraft development process. This means engaging closely with airlines and lessors to provide clear timelines, robust performance data, and realistic expectations around maintenance, support, and infrastructure needs. Additionally, manufacturers should focus on modularity and retrofit options, enabling smoother transitions for operators and protecting investments as technologies evolve.
3. Governments: Policy certainty is a critical enabler for fleet renewal. Governments should prioritise long-term, stable regulatory frameworks and incentives that support sustainable aviation, including the deployment of SAF, hydrogen, and electric infrastructure. Clear signals around certification standards, funding for infrastructure development, and targeted incentives will give airlines and their partners the confidence to invest in new propulsion technologies, to avoid the situation were ‘the frontrunner pays’.

PANEL – Fleets of the Future: How Are Airlines Approaching New Propulsion?

What inspired e-Smart Avia to order up to 20 Beta Alia electric aircraft, and how does this position the company in the shift toward zero-emission air freight?

There are several factors which were driving our decision:

• Market: There is some un-met demand for a fast and reliable delivery up to 500 kms. Road service is not always reliable due to traffic congestions and/or landscape limitations (mountains, isles, other water or land barriers etc), while existing air service is too complex and extremely expensive. At the same time, growing B2C and B2B e-commerce industry put up a very challenging logistics tasks which can be achieved only by air services.
• Technology: BETA has come up with a very innovative and at the same time very reliable airplanes (both CTOL and VTOL) in all technical aspects - including the airframe, batteries and an electric motor. The CTOL reliability has been proven during the flight test programs and exceeded the manufacturer's promises. A simple, though very reliable aircraft for pilots, mechanics and ground personnel
• Certification: the BETA's CTOL aircraft is arguable the closest one to successfully conclude the FAA aircraft type certification to begin the commercial operations in late 2026, early 2027
• Economics: Tthe aircraft's economics is predicted to be in the range of direct competition with a road delivery. Which opens up air services for much broader number of corporate and individual customers. Air delivery has always been a prime and exclusive product due to its high costs and price. This aircraft might change it completely making short-haul air services as common and affordable as any other mode of transport
• Environment: Last but not least, this is the first practical case demonstrating that zero-emission flying can be commercially lucrative. Not to mention that this precedent might and should change the perception of the market and general public that electric airplanes are non-practical and more for the purposes of some academic researches rather than day-to-day use.
• Finally, our team has accumulated a lot of experience in air freight industry. And we strongly believe that this aircraft has got a very high potential, which we will be able to materialize.

How do you plan to finance and scale operations with electric cargo planes amid current aviation leasing market dynamics?

We are looking for both equity partners and debt providers (on a lease basis and/or commercial loan basis). We start with the first 5 airplanes in 2027, with 15 more to join later. However, we are seeing potential for at least 50+ fleet judging by the market response in different markets - UK, Netherlands, UAE. Financing structure can vary depending on the geography and preferences of the equity partners. Besides, we are talking to several agencies in the UK and the Netherlands to provide some grant financing for both airline operations and ground charging infrastructure.

What investment or partnership opportunities does this electric fleet expansion create for aviation financiers attending Ishka Horizon?

1. Equity partnership. e-Smart Group is open to consider equity investors in UAE, UK and NL
2. Leasing opportunities. We are prepared to look at both operational lease or finance lease structures on some of the airplanes on order
3. Commercial Loans
4. Partnership with providers of the ground charging infrastructure for the aviation-related businesses (airplanes and ground equipment)

PANEL – SAF in Practice: The User Perspective

As Director Global SAF at DHL Express, you've secured major deals like the 240,000-ton agreement with Phillips 66 and long-term Neste contracts - how do your different SAF deals enable a rapid ramp-up in usage across your global network while ensuring credible decarbonisation at low abatement costs for customers?

The SAF deals that we close follow different models from physical supply to book & claim. While it is important to build up physical supply chains to airports to ensure SAF is actually being delivered, book & claim agreements are needed to facilitate our steep ramp-up of SAF use in DHL operations. SAF is not yet physically available at all airports that we operate at. Therefore, both options are needed, and we believe we can deliver the best value to our customer’s with credible decarbonization of our air cargo operations while achieving favourable abatement cost.

DHL's Sustainability Roadmap targets 30% SAF blending by 2030 - what policy gaps (e.g., mandates, subsidies, or certification standards) do you see as most critical for logistics operators to secure investable SAF supply chains in 2026 and beyond?

The main hurdle is lack of planning certainty in many pieces of regulation. The EU-ETS SAF allowances in Europe are a great way to support SAF. But they are scheduled to expire by 2030 and will likely be used up in 2028 already. The US 45Z incentive will expire end of 2029. Both incentives will not trigger relevant investments into new SAF capacity but will only support existing facilities or those that are currently under construction. In the UK, the Revenue Certainty Mechanism is not defined in all details and therefore also does not have a relevant effect yet. We need clear and reliable regulation that will actually support future facilities.

You'll join the panel taking stock of global aviation sustainability policy – what do you hope will be the key takeaway for the audience of airline operators, SAF producers, financiers and aircraft lessors?

I hope we will be able to identify joint pain points that we can address with policy makers, standard setting organizations and other decision makers with one voice. Such a multi-stakeholder statement will have very high credibility and hopefully support improvements in regulation and standards to support more efficient SAF ramp-up.